Final Oscar Predictions

Anne Hathaway will be announcing the nominees bright and early tomorrow morning, so before we find out who the real runners are in each race, let's go through the major categories and place our bets if not beat some dead horses by repeating some of what is nearly set in stone for the ceremony itself. By this point, with most of the precursors having already transpired and gone into consideration in Academy votes (save for the Razzies and the BAFTAs which have at least disclosed their respective nominees), a short list of decided winners have emerged. But, then, this is the Oscars where simply getting nominated is an honor, so it's good exercise for our presaging skills, especially in the event that some upsets are pulled (like The Reader getting a Best Picture nomination over, say, The Dark Knight or Revolutionary Road). As we move closer to the night of the ceremony especially, things should get interesting as they have been these last few weeks with major guild awards going in different directions and diverging from the road that was once thought to be Avatar's inescapable warpath. Not that the tallies can change from now until the big night since votes have been cast already, but as we wade through reverberations that are still trembling through the industry in wait for their dissipation, clarity and certainty might actually also emerge. A lot can happen (notice that while critics have continued to pour their support on Meryl Streep, industry folk have been seduced by Sandra Bullock's keen strategy of playing to her strengths; critics don't vote in the Oscars despite having some amount of influence).

Best Picture (new rules, remember! ten nominees):
Avatar -- could win (Golden Globe)
The Hurt Locker -- could win / should win (DGA, PGA, BFCA)
Up in the Air -- could win (NBR)
Inglourious Basterds -- could win (SAG)
Precious
District 9
A Serious Man
An Education
Star Trek
Invictus
Alternates: (500) Days of Summer, The Hangover, A Single Man, Up

Best Director (looks like a showdown between exes Bigelow and Cameron):
James Cameron, Avatar -- could win (Golden Globe)
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker -- could win / should win (DGA, BFCA)
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds -- should win
Lee Daniels, Precious
Alternates: Neill Blomkamp, District 9

Best Actor (it's Bridges' to lose, which is unlikely since the backlash has been minimal):
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker -- should win
Colin Firth, A Single Man -- should win
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart -- could win (SAG, BFCA)
George Clooney, Up in the Air (NBR)
Morgan Freeman, Invictus (NBR)
Alternates: Viggo Mortenson, The Road

Best Actress (the real race is Bullock vs. Streep, but a split can result in a third coming in to win):
Carey Mulligan, An Education -- could win / should win (NBR)
Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side -- could win (BFCA, SAG, Golden Globe)
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia -- could win / should win (BFCA, Golden Globe)
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
Helen Mirren, The Last Station
Alternates: Emily Blunt, The Young Victoria; Zoe Saldana, Avatar

Best Supporting Actor (now it's Waltz' to lose, but Harrelson delivered a knockout too):
Alfred Molina, An Education
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
Woody Harrelson, The Messenger -- could win / should win (NBR)
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds -- could win / should win (SAG, BFCA, Golden Globe)
Alternates: Matt Damon, Invictus; Anthony Mackie, Thr Hurt Locker; Christian McKay, Me and Orson Welles

Best Supporting Actress (once thought she'd shoot herself in the foot, it's now Mo'nique's for sure):
Mo'nique, Precious -- could win / should win (BFCA, SAG, Golden Globe)
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air -- could win (NBR)
Julianne Moore, A Single Man -- should win
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air
Melanie Laurent, Inglourious Basterds
Alternates: Penelop Cruz, Nine; Samantha Morton, The Messenger; Maggie Gyllenhaal, Crazy Heart

Best Original Screenplay (personally, as long as Avatar doesn't get nominated, I'm happy):
Inglourious Basterds -- could win / should win 
The Hurt Locker -- could win / should win
(500) Days of Summer
Up
A Serious Man
Alternates: Avatar, The Hangover, The Messenger

Best Adapted Screenplay (it's between Up in the Air and Precious, both based on novels):
An Education
Up in the Air -- could win / should win
District 9
Precious -- could win / should win
Julie & Julia
Alternates: In the Loop, Crazy Heart, Fantastic Mr. Fox

Best Animated Film (at one point I'd have said it's down to Fox, Coraline and Up, but now it's all Up):
Up -- could win / should win (Golden Globe, NBR, BFCA)
Fantastic Mr. Fox
Coraline -- should win
The Princess and the Frog
Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs
Alternates: Ponyo, 9

Best Documentary Film (that the mass-murdering of dolphins has simmered will help The Cove):
The Cove -- could win / should win (Golden Globe, BFCA, PGA, DGA)
Food, Inc. -- should win
The Beaches of Agnes
Facing Ali
Burma VJ: Reporting from a Closed Country
Alternates: Valentino, Every Little Step, Under Our Skin

Best Foreign Film (it's down to France and Germany, but I'm sure Germany's Haneke will win):
A Prophet, France -- could win / should win
The White Ribbon, Germany -- could win / should win
Winter in Wartime, Netherlands
Samson & Delilah, Australia
The Secret in Their Eyes, Argentina
Alternates: Ajami, Israel; The World is Big, Bulgaria

These will be updated as soon as the nominations are broadcast and I'm awake and near a computer. I've got a pretty good feeling I'm close in each category, I'll mark them up in a different color so that we can all see exactly how close I was able to get.